COVID19: Holiday intentions during a pandemic

The travel, tourism and hospitality industries have been the worst affected of the world's major economic sectors during the COVID19 pandemic, which has had a devastating effect on both destinations and organisations. Drawing from a sample (N = 385) of adult permanent residents of Athens, Greece, the study examines the impact of COVID19 upon holiday intention. The chaordic systems are evaluated through the use of fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, whilst the study also used Necessary Condition Analysis for the calculation of the size effects of the examined conditions. The findings reveal two sufficient complex configurations leading to holiday intention: (i) holiday risks, and (ii) impact of COVID19. Based on the results, the article also offers a set of managerial implications. The contribution of the study is to both theoretical and methodological tourism domains.     

Multi-criteria analysis of economic complexity transition in emerging economies: The case of Paraguay

Like many emerging economies, the productive structure of the Paraguayan economy is not complex. It relies extensively on low value-added activities in the primary sector such as agriculture and cattle ranching. These activities have a lower return in terms of economic and social benefits than other potential productive activities and do not contribute to increasing capability accumulation. In this paper we present a tool to support the identification of strategic sectors and products which if taken advantage of, could leverage development through the accumulation of productive capabilities. Our guiding question is: Which productive sectors should be promoted to foster economic development in Paraguay through a transition towards a more complex economy? To answer this question, we use concepts from the Economic Complexity theory to identify new products and cluster them based on the Product Space methodology for the determination of potential products and combine it with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for multicriteria analysis considering multiple criteria. In doing so, our proposed methodology contributes to both the Economic Complexity and the AHP literature. Through this combination, we tackle the multiplicity of juxtaposed criteria, which should be considered at the prioritization stage in the crafting of economic restructuring measures according to the country's capabilities. Our evaluation showed that the combination of the approaches is useful, and for Paraguay's case, it helped identify sectors, which, if promoted by policymakers, could help boost economic development through complexity and capability accumulation.     

COMPARING PPP WITH TRADITIONAL PROCUREMENT: THE CASE OF SCHOOLS PROCUREMENT IN IRELAND

Advocates of public‐private partnerships (PPPs) argue that they can deliver public infrastructure more efficiently than traditional procurement through timelier completion and superior value for money. Despite these claims comparative analysis of the performance of both procurement methods has received scant attention in the PPP literature to date. This paper addresses this issue by providing an in‐depth, case‐based comparison of PPP versus traditional procurement in the schools sector in Ireland. Through detailed semi‐structured interviews with key stakeholders and an examination of the available documentation, we assess whether the key objectives of using PPP have been achieved. Overall, we find no evidence that PPP leads to faster delivery of infrastructure when the overall procurement process from contract notice to delivery is accounted for. In addition, we find only limited evidence to suggest that PPP results in better value for money.     

How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?

This paper distinguishes a terrorist group’s survivability from its success. Terrorist groups succeed if they join the political process or achieve some of their goals. Based on a sample of 470 terrorist groups, we first estimate the determinants of groups’ ending and, conditional on their demise, we identify factors conducive to their success. We find that religious fundamentalist terrorist groups survive longer than left-wing, nationalist/separatist, or right-wing groups; but religious groups are less apt than other ideologies to attain their objectives or to join the political process. Larger groups survive longer and possess a better success prognosis. Within-country group competition is conducive to survival, but harmful to success. Controls include groups’ goals, groups’ strategic choices, and home country’s characteristics. Robustness tests disaggregate our success measure, provide panel estimates, and incorporate other controls.     

A three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial GDP growth

This paper estimates a three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting the Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). The Canadian provincial GDP at market prices is released by Statistics Canada annually with a significant lag (11 months). This necessitates a mixed-frequency approach that can process timely monthly data, the quarterly national accounts, and the annual target variable. The model is estimated on a wide set of provincial, national and international data. In a pseudo real-time exercise, we find that the model outperforms simple benchmarks and is competitive with more sophisticated mixed-frequency approaches (MIDAS models). We also find that variables from the Labour Force Survey are important predictors of real activity. This paper expands previous work that has documented the importance of foreign variables for nowcasting Canadian GDP. This paper finds that including national and foreign predictors is useful for Ontario, while worsening the nowcast performance for smaller provinces.     

玉林市存贷比运行特征、存在问题及对策建议——基于桂东四市比较

存贷款比例是银行业金融机构经营管理的重要指标之一,存贷比例过低不利于地方经济的发展。广西玉林市自2000年以来,存贷差逐年扩大,存贷比长期在低位徘徊,2013年存贷比在广西全区排最后一名。本文通过桂东四市（玉林市、梧州市、贺州市、贵港市）经济金融主要指标对比,分析玉林市银行业金融机构存贷比运行特征,揭示造成玉林市低存贷比的原因,提出提高存贷比的相关措施以及科学合理看待存贷比的建议。     

Positive versus negative comparative advertising

Two studies examined cognitive responses to comparative advertising that was valenced, i.e., was either negative or positive. Negative comparative advertising featured the advertised brand derogating the comparison brand (I'm OK, you're not OK). Positive comparative advertising claimed superiority over the comparison brand in a nonderogatory manner (You're OK, I'm more OK). Subjects were exposed to either a negative comparative ad or a positive comparative ad. In study 1, the ad featured either a high or low share advertised brand and either a high or low share comparison brand while in study 2, the ad featured advertised and comparison brands with either a strong or a weak reputation. Across both studies, it was found that negative comparative advertising evoked significantly higher counterargumentation and lower claim acceptance than its positive counterpart. Also, when the advertised brand had a high share relative to the comparison brand, counterargumentation was lower and claim acceptance was higher vis-a-vis when the advertised brand had a low share relative to the comparison brand. Findings pertaining to brand reputation were mixed. Managerial and future research implications of the findings are discussed.     

我国粮食对外贸易中的一个“悖论”及其成因探析

按照比较优势理论,我国应净进口粮食这一土地密集型产品。但本文在实证分析后却发现,1997年以来我国已经成为粮食产品的净出口国。粮食产品较低的“可贸易度”制约了市场机制及比较优势作用的发挥。但从中长期来看,粮食产品的“可贸易度”会呈上升态势,发挥国内外“两个市场”的作用对增强我国粮食安全保障具有重要意义。     

产业集聚：安徽省吸收外资的战略选择

在新时期能否抓住机遇，大力引进外资，是关系安徽省未来经济高度发展的关键问题。本文在分析安徽省招商引资现状的基础上，运用实证分析和理论分析的方法，得出产业集聚是安徽省吸引外资的重要选择，并针对安徽省产业集聚现存问题，提出了整合安徽省产业集聚的政策建议。     

论我国加工贸易的就业效应

我国将在较长时期内面临强大的就业压力.贸易政策也要把追求就业增长和就业质量提高作为其核心目标.加工贸易将我国的劳动力优势与发达国家的资本技术优势相结合,创造了大量的就业岗位,并为我们培养了大量高素质的蓝领工人、技术人才和管理人员.我们要正确认识加工贸易对经济发展的作用,并推动其健康发展.